2012

This presentation is a presentation for the Army Conference on Applied Statistics. The presentation covers a brief introduction to land warfare problems, and devises a methodology using Bayes Theorem to estimate parameters of interest. Two examples are given, a simple one using independent Bernoulli Trials, and a more complex one using correlated Red and Blue casualty data in a Loss Exchange Ratio and a hierarchical model. The presentation demonstrates that the Bayesian approach is successful in both examples at reducing the variance of the estimated parameters, potentially reducing the cost of devising a complex test program....

In today’s fiscal environment, efficient and effective testing is essential. Often, military system requirements are defined using probability of success as the primary measure of effectiveness – for example, a system must complete its mission 80 percent of the time; or the system must detect 90 percent of targets. The traditional approach to testing these probability-based requirements is to execute a series of trials and then total the number of successes; the ratio of successes to number of trails provides an intuitive measure of the probability of success....

The areas of application for design of experiments principles have evolved, mimicking the growth of U.S. industries over the last century, from agriculture to manufacturing to chemical and process industries to the services and government sectors. In addition, statistically based quality programs adopted by businesses morphed from total quality management to Six Sigma and, most recently, statistical engineering (see Hoerl and Snee 2010). The good news about these transformations is that each evolution contains more technical substance, embedding the methodologies as core competencies, and is less of a ‘‘program....

This document outlines the charter for the Committee to Institutionalize Scientific Test Design and Rigor in Test and Evaluation. The charter defines the problem, identifies potential steps in a roadmap for accomplishing the goals of the committee and lists committeemembership. Once the committee is assembled, the members will revise this document as needed. The charter will be endorsed by DOT&E and DDT&E, once finalize. Suggested Citation Freeman, Laura. Statistically Based T&E Using Design of Experiments....