John Dennis

Both NASA and DOT&E increasingly rely on computer models to supplement data collection, and utilize statistical distributions to quantify the uncertainty in models, so that decision-makers are equipped with the most accurate information about system performance and model fitness. This article provides a high-level overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) through an example assessment for the reliability of a new space-suit system. The goal is to reach a more general audience in Significance Magazine, and convey the importance and relevance of statistics to the defense and aerospace communities....

Sequential analysis concerns statistical evaluation in situations in which the number, pattern, or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation, but instead depends upon the information acquired throughout the course of the investigation. Expanding the use of sequential analysis has the potential to save resources and reduce test time (National Research Council, 1998). This paper summarizes the literature on sequential analysis and offers fundamental information for providing recommendations for its use in DoD test and evaluation....

We summarize a subset of the literature regarding the challenges to and recommendations for the test, evaluation, verification, and validation (TEV&V) of autonomous military systems. This literature review is meant for informational purposes only and does not make any recommendations of its own. A synthesis of the literature identified the following categories of TEV&V challenges Problems arising from the complexity of autonomous systems, Challenges imposed by the structure of the current acquisition system,...