Heather Wojton

We propose and present a parallelized metric framework for evaluating human-machine teams that draws upon current knowledge of human-systems interfacing and integration but is rooted in team-centric concepts. Humans and machines working together as a team involves interactions that will only increase in complexity as machines become more intelligent, capable teammates. Assessing such teams will require explicit focus on not just the human-machine interfacing but the full spectrum of interactions between and among agents....

Effective training of the broad set of users/operators of systems has downstream impacts on usability, workload, and ultimate system performance that are related to mission success. In order to measure training effectiveness, we designed a survey called the Operational Assessment of Training Scale (OATS) in partnership with the Army Test and Evaluation Center (ATEC). Two subscales were designed to assess the degrees to which training covered relevant content for real operations (Relevance subscale) and enabled self-rated ability to interact with systems effectively after training (Efficacy subscale)....

As the Department of Defense acquires new systems with artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous (AI&A) capabilities, the test and evaluation (T&E) community will need to adapt to the challenges that these novel technologies present. The goals listed in this AI Roadmap address the broad range of tasks that the T&E community will need to achieve in order to properly test, evaluate, verify, and validate AI-enabled and autonomous systems. It includes issues that are unique to AI and autonomous systems, as well as legacy T&E shortcomings that will be compounded by newer technologies....

This paper describes holistic progress in answering the question of “How much testing is enough?” It covers areas in which the T&E community has made progress, areas in which progress remains elusive, and issues that have emerged since 1994 that provide additional challenges. The selected case studies used to highlight progress are especially interesting examples, rather than a comprehensive look at all programs since 1994. Suggested Citation Medlin, Rebecca, Matthew R Avery, James R Simpson, and Heather M Wojton....

As operational testing becomes increasingly integrated and research questions become more difficult to answer, IDA’s Test Science team has found Bayesian models to be powerful data analysis methods. Analysts and decision-makers should understand the differences between this approach and the conventional way of analyzing data. It is also important to recognize when an analysis could benefit from the inclusion of prior information—what we already know about a system’s performance—and to understand the proper way to incorporate that information....

Fragmentation analysis is a critical piece of the live fire test and evaluation (LFT&E) of the lethality and vulnerability aspects of warheads. But the traditional methods for data collection are expensive and laborious. New optical tracking technology is promising to increase the fidelity of fragmentation data, and decrease the time and costs associated with data collection. However, the new data will be complex, three-dimensional “fragmentation clouds,” possibly with a time component as well, and there will be a larger number of individual data points....

Sequential analysis concerns statistical evaluation in situations in which the number, pattern, or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation, but instead depends upon the information acquired throughout the course of the investigation. Expanding the use of sequential analysis has the potential to save resources and reduce test time (National Research Council, 1998). This paper summarizes the literature on sequential analysis and offers fundamental information for providing recommendations for its use in DoD test and evaluation....

Circular prediction regions are used in ballistic testing to express the uncertainty in shot accuracy. We compare two modeling approaches for estimating circular prediction regions for the miss distance of a ballistic projectile. The miss distance response variable is bivariate normal and has a mean and variance that can change with one or more experimental factors. The first approach fits a heteroskedastic linear model using restricted maximum likelihood, and uses the Kenward-Roger statistic to estimate circular prediction regions....

To provide assurance that AI-enabled systems will behave appropriately across the range of their operating conditions without performing exhaustive testing, the DoD will need to make inferences about system decision making. However, making these inferences validly requires understanding what causally drives system decision-making, which is not possible when systems are black boxes. In this briefing, we discuss the state of the art and gaps in techniques for obtaining, verifying, validating, and accrediting (OVVA) models of system decision-making....

We summarize a subset of the literature regarding the challenges to and recommendations for the test, evaluation, verification, and validation (TEV&V) of autonomous military systems. This literature review is meant for informational purposes only and does not make any recommendations of its own. A synthesis of the literature identified the following categories of TEV&V challenges Problems arising from the complexity of autonomous systems, Challenges imposed by the structure of the current acquisition system,...

The Department of Defense (DoD) has invested significant effort over the past decade considering the role of artificial intelligence and autonomy in national security (e.g., Defense Science Board, 2012, 2016, Deputy Secretary of Defense, 2012, Endsley, 2015, Executive Order No. 13859, 2019, US Department of Defense, 2011, 2019, Zacharias, 2019a). However, these efforts were broadly scoped and only partially touched on how the DoD will certify the safety and performance of these systems....

IDA analysts strive to communicate clearly and effectively. Good data visualizations can enhance reports by making the conclusions easier to understand and more memorable. The goal of this seminar is to help you avoid settling for factory defaults and instead present your conclusions through visually appealing and understandable charts. Topics covered include choosing the right level of detail, guidelines for different types of graphical elements (titles, legends, annotations, etc.), selecting the right variable encodings (color, plot symbol, etc....

The purpose of this briefing is to provide a high-level overview of how to frame the question of testing autonomous systems in a way that will enable development of successful test strategies. The brief outlines the challenges and broad-stroke reforms needed to get ready for the test challenges of the next century. Suggested Citation Wojton, Heather M, and Daniel J Porter. Demystifying the Black Box: A Test Strategy for Autonomy. IDA Document NS D-10465-NS....

Advances in computational power have allowed both greater fidelity and more extensive use of such models. Numerous complex military systems have a corresponding model that simulates its performance in the field. In response, the DoD needs defensible practices for validating these models. Design of Experiments and statistical analysis techniques are the foundational building blocks for validating the use of computer models and quantifying uncertainty in that validation. Recent developments in uncertainty quantification have the potential to benefit the DoD in using modeling and simulation to inform operational evaluations....

This handbook focuses on methods for data-driven validation to supplement the vast existing literature for Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) and the emerging references on uncertainty quantification (UQ). The goal of this handbook is to aid the test and evaluation (T&E) community in developing test strategies that support model validation (both external validation and parametric analysis) and statistical UQ. Suggested Citation Wojton, Heather, Kelly M Avery, Laura J Freeman, Samuel H Parry, Gregory S Whittier, Thomas H Johnson, and Andrew C Flack....

Some responses cannot be observed directly and must be inferred from multiple indirect measurements, for example human experiences accessed through a variety of survey questions. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) is a data-driven method to optimally combine these indirect measurements to infer some number of unobserved factors. Ideally, EFA should identify how many unobserved factors the indirect measures help estimate (factor extraction), as well as accurately capture how well each indirect measure estimates each factor (parameter recovery)....

Trust is a key determinant of whether people rely on automated systems in the military and the public. However, there is currently no standard for measuring trust in automated systems. In the present studies we propose a scale to measure trust in automated systems that is grounded in current research and theory on trust formation, which we refer to as the Trust in Automated Systems Test (TOAST). We evaluated both the reliability of the scale structure and criterion validity using independent, military-affiliated and civilian samples....

Systems with autonomy pose unique challenges for operational test. This document provides an executive level overview of these issues and the proposed solutions and reforms. In order to be ready for the testing challenges of the next century, we will need to change the entire acquisition life cycle, starting even from initial system conceptualization. This briefing was presented to the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation along with his deputies and Chief Scientist....

Pilot Training Next is an exploratory investigation of new technologies and procedures to increase the efficiency of Undergraduate Pilot Training in the United States Air Force. IDA analysts present a method of quantifying skill transfer from simulators to aircraft under realistic, uncontrolled conditions. Suggested Citation Porter, Daniel, Emily Fedele, and Heather Wojton. Pilot Training Next: Modeling Skill Transfer in a Military Learning Environment. IDA Document NS D-10927. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2019....

Acceptance Sampling by Variables (ASbV) is a statistical testing technique used in Personal Protective Equipment programs to determine the quality of the equipment in First Article and Lot Acceptance Tests. This article intends to remedy the lack of existing references that discuss the similarities between ASbV and certain techniques used in different sub-disciplines within statistics. Understanding ASbV from a statistical perspective allows testers to create customized test plans, beyond what is available in MIL-STD-414....

We present a simulation study that examines the impact of small sample sizes in both observation and nesting levels of the model on the fixed effect bias, type I error, and the power of a simple mixed model analysis. Despite the need for adjustments to control for type I error inflation, our findings indicate that smaller samples than previously recognized can be used for mixed models under certain conditions prevalent in applied research....

Mixed-effects models are the standard technique for analyzing data with grouping structure. In defense testing, these models are useful because they allow us to account for correlations between observations, a feature common in many operational tests. In this article, we describe the advantages of modeling data from a mixed-effects perspective and discuss an R package—ciTools—that equips the user with easy methods for presenting results from this type of model. Suggested Citation Haman, John, Matthew Avery, and Heather Wojton....

The purpose of survivability testing is to provide decision makers with relevant, credible evidence about the survivability of an aircraft that is conveyed with some degree of certainty or inferential weight. In developing an experiment to accomplish this goal, a test planner faces numerous questions What critical issue or issues are being address? What data are needed to answer the critical issues? What test conditions should be varied? What is the most economical way of varying those conditions?...

Abstract This document contains the technical content for the Scientific Test and Analysis Techniques (STAT) in Test and Evaluation (T&E) continuous learning module. The module provides a basic understanding of STAT in T&E. Topics coverec include design of experiments, observational studies, survey design and analysis, and statistical analysis. It is designed as a four hour online course, suitable for inclusion in the DAU T&E certification curriculum. Slides

This document contains the technical content for the Scientific Test and Analysis Techniques (STAT) in Test and Evaluation (T&E) continuous learning module. The module provides a basic understanding of STAT in T&E. Topics covered include design of experiments, observational studies, survey design and analysis, and statistical analysis. It is designed as a four hour online course, suitable for inclusion in the DAU T&E certification curriculum. Suggested Citation Pinelis, Yevgeniya, Laura J Freeman, Heather M Wojton, Denise J Edwards, Stephanie T Lane, and James R Simpson....

The purpose of this paper was to identify the shortcomings of a single-method approach to evaluating human-system interactions during operational testing and offer an alternative, multi-method approach that is more defensible, yields richer insights into how operators interact with weapon systems, and provides a practical implications for identifying when the quality of human-system interactions warrants correction through either operator training or redesign. Suggested Citation Thomas, Dean, Heather Wojton, Chad Bieber, and Daniel Porter....

Psychological measurement is an important issue throughout the Department of Defense (DoD). Forinstance, the DoD engages in psychological measurement to place military personnel into specialties,evaluate the mental health of military personnel, evaluate the quality of human-systems interactions, andidentify factors that affect crime rates on bases. Given its broad use, researchers and decision-makers needto understand the basics of psychological measurement – most notably, the development of surveys. Thisbriefing discusses 1) the goals and challenges of psychological measurement, 2) basic measurementconcepts and how they apply to psychological measurement, 3) basics for developing scales to measurepsychological attributes, and 4) methods for ensuring that scales are reliable and valid....

The goal of operation testing (OT) is to evaluate the effectiveness and suitability of military systems for use by trained military users in operationally realistic environments. Operators perform missions and make systems function. Thus, adequate OT must assess not only system performance and technical capability across the operational space, but also the quality of human-system interactions. Software systems in particular pose a unique challenge to testers. While some software systems may inherently be deterministic in nature, once placed in their intended environment with error-prone humans and highly stochastic networks, variability in outcomes often occurs, so tests often need to account for both “bug” finding and characterizing variability....

An important goal of test and evaluation is to understand not only how a system performs in its intended environment, but also users’ experiences operating the system. This briefing aimed to provide the audience with a set of tools – most notably, surveys – that are appropriate for measuring the user experience. DOT&E guidance regarding these tools is highlighted where appropriate. The briefing was broken into three major sections: conceptualizing surveys, writing survey items, and formatting surveys....