2022

In the acquisition and testing world, data analysts repeatedly encounter certain categories of data, such as time or distance until an event (e.g., failure, alert, detection), binary outcomes (e.g., success/failure, hit/miss), and survey responses. Analysts need tools that enable them to produce quality and timely analyses of the data they acquire during testing. This poster presents four web-based apps that can analyze these types of data. The apps are designed to assist analysts and researchers with simple repeatable analysis tasks, such as building summary tables and plots for reports or briefings....

Sequential analysis concerns statistical evaluation in which the number, pattern, or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation, but instead depends on the information acquired during the investigation. Although sequential analysis originated in ballistics testing for the Department of Defense (DoD)and it is widely used in other disciplines, it is underutilized in the DoD. Expanding the use of sequential analysis may save money and reduce test time....

Version control software manages, archives, and (optionally) distributes different versions of files. The most popular program for version control is Git, which serves as the backbone of websites such as Github, Bitbucket, and others. In this mini- tutorial, we will introduce basics of version control in general, and Git in particular. We explain what role Git plays in a reproducible research context. The goal of the course is to get participants started using Git....

Effective training of the broad set of users/operators of systems has downstream impacts on usability, workload, and ultimate system performance that are related to mission success. In order to measure training effectiveness, we designed a survey called the Operational Assessment of Training Scale (OATS) in partnership with the Army Test and Evaluation Center (ATEC). Two subscales were designed to assess the degrees to which training covered relevant content for real operations (Relevance subscale) and enabled self-rated ability to interact with systems effectively after training (Efficacy subscale)....

Modeling and simulation (M&S) outputs help the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) assess the effectiveness, survivability, lethality, and suitability of systems. To use M&S outputs, DOT&E needs models and simulators to be sufficiently verified and validated. The purpose of this paper is to improve the state of verification and validation by recommending and demonstrating a set of statistical techniques—metamodels, also called statistical emulators—to the M&S community. The paper expands on DOT&E’s existing guidance about metamodel usage by creating methodological recommendations the M&S community could apply to its activities....

Following Wojton’s research on the Trust of Automated Systems Test (TOAST), which is designed to measure how much a human trusts an automated system, we aimed to determine how well this scale performs when not used in a military context. We found that participants who used a poorly performing automated system trusted the system less than expected when using that system on a case by case basis, however, those who used a high performing system trusted the system the same as they expected....

This briefing presented at Dataworks 2022 provides examples of potential ways in which Design of Experiments (DOE) could be applied to initially scope cyber assessments and, based on the results of those assessments, subsequently design in greater detail cyber tests. Suggested Citation Gilmore, James M, Kelly M Avery, Matthew R Girardi, and Rebecca M Medlin. Thoughts on Applying Design of Experiments (DOE) to Cyber Testing. IDA Document NS D-33023. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2022....

A Human-Machine Team (HMT) is a group ofagents consisting of at least one human and at least one machine, all functioning collaboratively towards one or more common objectives. As industry and defense find more helpful, creative, and difficult applications of AI-driven technology, the need to effectively and accurately model, simulate, test, and evaluate HMTs will continue to grow and become even more essential. Going along with that growing need, new methods are required to evaluate whether a human-machine team is performing effectively as a team in testing and evaluation scenarios....

It is often said that many research findings – from social sciences, medicine, economics, and other disciplines – are false. This fact is trumpeted in the media and by many statisticians. There are several reasons that false research is published, but to what extent should we be worried about them in defense testing and modeling and simulation? In this talk I will present several recommendations for actions that statisticians and data scientists can take to improve the quality of our validations and evaluations....