2021

As the Department of Defense acquires new systems with artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous (AI&A) capabilities, the test and evaluation (T&E) community will need to adapt to the challenges that these novel technologies present. The goals listed in this AI Roadmap address the broad range of tasks that the T&E community will need to achieve in order to properly test, evaluate, verify, and validate AI-enabled and autonomous systems. It includes issues that are unique to AI and autonomous systems, as well as legacy T&E shortcomings that will be compounded by newer technologies....

This paper describes holistic progress in answering the question of “How much testing is enough?” It covers areas in which the T&E community has made progress, areas in which progress remains elusive, and issues that have emerged since 1994 that provide additional challenges. The selected case studies used to highlight progress are especially interesting examples, rather than a comprehensive look at all programs since 1994. Suggested Citation Medlin, Rebecca, Matthew R Avery, James R Simpson, and Heather M Wojton....

As operational testing becomes increasingly integrated and research questions become more difficult to answer, IDA’s Test Science team has found Bayesian models to be powerful data analysis methods. Analysts and decision-makers should understand the differences between this approach and the conventional way of analyzing data. It is also important to recognize when an analysis could benefit from the inclusion of prior information—what we already know about a system’s performance—and to understand the proper way to incorporate that information....

Qualitative data, captured through free-form comment boxes, interviews, focus groups, and activity observation is heavily employed in testing and evaluation (T&E). The qualitative research approach can offer many benefits, but knowledge of how to implement methods, collect data, and analyze data according to rigorous qualitative research standards is not broadly understood within the T&E community. This tutorial offers insight into the foundational concepts of method and practice that embody defensible approaches to qualitative research....

This document presents arguments and methods for using space-filling designs (SFDs) to plan modeling and simulation (M&S) data collection. Suggested Citation Avery, Kelly, John T Haman, Thomas Johnson, Curtis Miller, Dhruv Patel, and Han Yi. Test Design Challenges in Defense Testing. IDA Product ID 3002855. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2024. Slides: Paper:

Fragmentation analysis is a critical piece of the live fire test and evaluation (LFT&E) of the lethality and vulnerability aspects of warheads. But the traditional methods for data collection are expensive and laborious. New optical tracking technology is promising to increase the fidelity of fragmentation data, and decrease the time and costs associated with data collection. However, the new data will be complex, three-dimensional “fragmentation clouds,” possibly with a time component as well, and there will be a larger number of individual data points....

The Department of Defense (DoD) develops and acquires some of the world’s most advanced and sophisticated systems. As new technologies emerge and are incorporated into systems, OSD/DOT&E faces the challenge of ensuring that these systems undergo adequate and efficient test and evaluation (T&E) prior to operational use. Statistical engineering is a collaborative, analytical approach to problem solving that integrates statistical thinking, methods, and tools with other relevant disciplines. The statistical engineering process provides better solutions to large, unstructured, real-world problems and supports rigorous decision-making....