The ITEA Journal of Test and Evaluation

Advances in computational power have allowed both greater fidelity and more extensive use of such models. Numerous complex military systems have a corresponding model that simulates its performance in the field. In response, the DoD needs defensible practices for validating these models. Design of Experiments and statistical analysis techniques are the foundational building blocks for validating the use of computer models and quantifying uncertainty in that validation. Recent developments in uncertainty quantification have the potential to benefit the DoD in using modeling and simulation to inform operational evaluations....

Reusing Test and Evaluation (T&E) datasets multiple times at different points throughout a program’s lifecycle is one way to realize their full value. Data management plays an important role in enabling - and even encouraging – this practice. Although Department-level policy on data management is supportive of reuse and consistent with best practices from industry and academia, the documents that shape the day-to-day activities of T&E practitioners are much less so....

The fundamental purpose of test and evaluation (T&E) in the Department of Defense (DOD) is to provide knowledge to answer critical questions that help decision makers manage the risk involved in developing, producing, operating, and sustaining systems and capabilities. At its core, T&E takes data and translates it into information for decision makers. Subject matter expertise of the platform and operational mission have always been critical components of developing defensible test and evaluation strategies....

In April 2016, NASA, DOT&E, and IDA collaborated on a workshopdesigned to strengthen the community around statistical approaches to test andevaluation in defense and aerospace. The workshop brought practitioners, analysts,technical leadership, and statistical academics together for a three day exchange ofinformation with opportunities to attend world renowned short courses, share commodchallenges, and learn new skill sets from a variety of tutorials. A highlight of theworkshop was the Tuesday afternoon technical leadership panel chaired by Dr....

This paper shows how Bayesian methods are ideal for the assessment of complex system reliability assessments. Several examples illustrate the methodology. Suggested Citation Freeman, Laura J, and Kassandra Fronczyk. “Improving Reliability Estimates with Bayesian Statistics.” ITEA Journal of Test and Evaluation 37, no. 4 (June 2015). Paper:

For many systems, testing is expensive and only a few live test events are conducted. When this occurs, testers frequently use a model to extend the test results. However, testers must validate the model to show that it is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. This raises a problem when only a small number of live test events are conducted, only limited data are available to validate the model, and some testers struggle with model validation....

The current fiscal climate demands now, more than ever, that test and evaluation(T&E) provide relevant and credible characterization of system capabilities andshortfalls across all relevant operational conditions as efficiently as possible. Indetermining the answer to the question, “How much testing is enough?” it isimperative that we use a scientifically defensible methodology. Design ofExperiments (DOE) has a proven track record in Operational Test andEvaluation (OT&E) of not only quantifying how much testing is enough, but alsowhere in the operational space the test points should be placed....

There has been recent emphasis on the increased use of statistics, including the use of statistically designed experiments, to plan and execute tests that support Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. The use of statistical methods, including experimental design, has shown great benefits in industry, especially when used in an integrated fashion; for example see the literature on Six Sigma. The structured approach of experimental design allows the user to determine what data need to be collected and how it should be analyzed to achieve specific decision making objectives....