Army Conference on Applied Statistics

This presentation is a presentation for the Army Conference on Applied Statistics. The presentation covers a brief introduction to land warfare problems, and devises a methodology using Bayes Theorem to estimate parameters of interest. Two examples are given, a simple one using independent Bernoulli Trials, and a more complex one using correlated Red and Blue casualty data in a Loss Exchange Ratio and a hierarchical model. The presentation demonstrates that the Bayesian approach is successful in both examples at reducing the variance of the estimated parameters, potentially reducing the cost of devising a complex test program....

This presentation shows the merits of applying experimental design to operational tests, guidance on using DOE from the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, and presents the design solution for the test of a chemical agent detector. It is important to keep in mind the advanced techniques from DOE (split-plot designs, optimal designs) to determine effective DOEs for operational testing; traditional design strategies often result in designs that are not executable....