A vulnerability assessment of a combat vehicle uses modeling and simulation (M&S) to predict the vehicle’s vulnerability to a given enemy attack. The system-level output of the M&S is the probability that the vehicle’s mobility is degraded as a result of the attack. The M&S models this system-level phenomenon by decoupling the attack scenario into a hierarchy of sub-systems. Each sub-system addresses a specific scientific problem, such as the fracture dynamics of an exploded munition, or the ballistic resistance provided by the vehicle’s armor. For each sub-system in the hierarchy, laboratory testing is conducted to gather data to fit a subsystem-level model. The M&S hierarchically interconnects the subsystem-level models to enable prediction of the system-level output. As part of the DoD’s ongoing effort to improve M&S using verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, we present a case study that propagates the uncertainties in the hierarchy of sub-models to the system-level output.
Suggested Citation
Johnson, Thomas H., Dhruv K. Patel, John T. Haman, Jeremy S. Werner, and Dave Higdon. “Uncertainty Quantification for Ground Vehicle Vulnerability Simulation.” Quality Engineering, August 19, 2024. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08982112.2024.2394437.