Fragmentation analysis is a critical piece of the live fire test and evaluation (LFT&E) of the lethality and vulnerability aspects of warheads. But the traditional methods for data collection are expensive and laborious. New optical tracking technology is promising to increase the fidelity of fragmentation data, and decrease the time and costs associated with data collection. However, the new data will be complex, three-dimensional “fragmentation clouds,” possibly with a time component as well, and there will be a larger number of individual data points. This raises questions about how testers can effectively summarize spatial data and use it to draw conclusions about warhead performance for sponsors. In this briefing, we will discuss Bayesian spatial models that are effective for characterizing the mass and velocity fragmentation distributions, along with several exploratory data analysis techniques that help us make sense of the data. Our goals are to
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Produce simple statistics and visuals that help the live fire analyst compare and contrast warhead fragmentations.
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Characterize important performance attributes or confirm design/spec compliance.
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Provide data methods that ensure higher fidelity data collection translates to higher fidelity modeling and simulation down the line.
Suggested Citation
Couch, Mark, Thomas Johnson, John Haman, Kerry Walzl, Heather Wojton, Thomas Hatch-Aguilar, and David Higdon. Warhead Arena Analysis Advancements. IDA Document NS-D-11038. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2021.