For many systems, testing is expensive and only a few live test events are conducted. When this occurs, testers frequently use a model to extend the test results. However, testers must validate the model to show that it is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. This raises a problem when only a small number of live test events are conducted, only limited data are available to validate the model, and some testers struggle with model validation. This article describes a statistically rigorous approach for validating a model with only a small number of live test results. We discuss a specific application for validating a model of a naval surface combatant defending itself against a cruise missile attack. The approach takes into account potential correlation in the data and other factors that may drive system performance.
Suggested Citation
Thomas, Dean, and Rebecca Dickinson. “Validating the Probability of Raid Annihilation Testbed Using a Statistical Approach.” The ITEA Journal of Test and Evaluation 36, no. 2 (June 2015).