Scientific Test and Analysis Techniques on Test Science Research Document Library https://research.testscience.org/keywords/scientific-test-and-analysis-techniques/ Recent content in Scientific Test and Analysis Techniques on Test Science Research Document Library Hugo -- 0.129.0 en-us Institute for Defense Analyses Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000 A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Land Warfare Systems https://research.testscience.org/post/2012-a-bayesian-approach-to-evaluation-of-land-warfare-systems/ Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.testscience.org/post/2012-a-bayesian-approach-to-evaluation-of-land-warfare-systems/ This presentation is a presentation for the Army Conference on Applied Statistics. The presentation covers a brief introduction to land warfare problems, and devises a methodology using Bayes Theorem to estimate parameters of interest. Two examples are given, a simple one using independent Bernoulli Trials, and a more complex one using correlated Red and Blue casualty data in a Loss Exchange Ratio and a hierarchical model. The presentation demonstrates that the Bayesian approach is successful in both examples at reducing the variance of the estimated parameters, potentially reducing the cost of devising a complex test program. This presentation is a presentation for the Army Conference on Applied Statistics. The presentation covers a brief introduction to land warfare problems, and devises a methodology using Bayes Theorem to estimate parameters of interest. Two examples are given, a simple one using independent Bernoulli Trials, and a more complex one using correlated Red and Blue casualty data in a Loss Exchange Ratio and a hierarchical model. The presentation demonstrates that the Bayesian approach is successful in both examples at reducing the variance of the estimated parameters, potentially reducing the cost of devising a complex test program. The presentation concludes with suggested next steps applicable to the Army Ground Combat Vehicle program.

Suggested Citation

Wilson, Alyson, Lee Dewald, Robert Holcomb, and Samuel Parry. A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation  of Land Warfare Systems. IDA Document NS D-4711. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2012.

Slides:

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